Week of August 31 2009

Introduction to Jim Wesberry
E-Magazines by Jim Wesberry
THE REAL INVISIBLE HAND / LA MANO INVISIBLE VERDADERA ............(traducción en español más abajo)
THE FALTERING EAGLE: Speech made in 1970
CLEPTOCRACIA 1990 articulo para el 25 aniversario de ILACIF
ENFRENTANDO LA CORRUPCION EN TIEMPOS DE COVID, Conferencia - Profesionales del Bicentenario del Perú
ETICA E INTEGRIDAD, Congreso Organos Internos de Control, del Estado de Guanajuato, Mexico via Zoom
EL IMPACTO DE LA INTEGRIDAD, presentación en el Foro ISAF de Sonora, Mexico via Zoom
Donde fueron nuestros valores? Como podemos recuperarlos?
75 ANIVERSARIO DE LA Federación Nacional de Contadores del Ecuador
VIDEO: El Auditor Frente sus Tres Mayores Desafíos
MIAMI KEYNOTE: Public Financial Management, 2016
CONFERENCIA 6a Conferencia de Auditores Ecuador: El Auditor Interno Frente sus Tres Mayores Desafios
CONFERENCIA CReCER 2015: Empresas Estales en Busca de Etica---State Enterprises in Search of Ethics
CONFERENCIA QUITO HONESTO: Ambiente Etico = Municipio Eficiente: Principios de Conducta Etica, 2014
My Work in Peru / Mi trabajo en el Perú
CONFERENCIA EN HUANUCO, PERU - El Auditor enfrenta la Erupcion de Corrup$ion del Siglo XXI -2013
CONFERENCIAS EN CHILE - 3 Mayores Desafios al Auditor Interno - 2012 - VIDEO y TEXTO
Personal Information
My Resume (in English)
Mi Curriculum Vitae (en español)
Personal Photo Album
The Top Quartile of Life
AMERICA IN DECLINE? The Life Cycle of a Great Power
LEGENDS: Georgians Who Lived Impossible Dreams
Wesberry v. Sanders, 376 US 1 Landmark US House Reapportionment Case
Press Clips from Georgia Senate Service
The Best Speech I Ever Made
Why I Quit the Georgia Senate
Congressional Testimony
Activities in the Junior Chamber of Commerce
Contador Benemerito de las Americas (Most Meritorious Accountant of the Americas)
Articles from The Journal of Accountancy
My Credo
Interview about Leadership
Collusion Breaks Internal Controls
Creencia - Belief
Think -------- Pensar
WOMAN -------------- MUJER
Message to Garcia - Mensaje a García
COLOMBIA VS KLEPTOKAKISTOCRACIA: Presentación para el Día Internacional Anti-Corrupción 2011
LECTURE AT MANILA'S UNIVERSITY OF THE EAST: Integrity & Honor, Corruption & Dishonor VIDEO
EFFECT OF 2008 GLOBAL CRISIS (JW presentation in English)
SEGUNDA GRAN DEPRESION 2010 (JW presentaciónes en español)
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Items on this page are fromAug. 31 tthrough Sept. 5.  Some links may no longer be active.

Vice President Biden
declared  that the $787 billion economic stimulus program is playing a major role in lifting the nation's economy out of the worst financial downturn since the Great Depression.

Offering an assessment of the program 200 days after its enactment, Biden said that the legislation has moved the country from the edge of a financial abyss into what increasingly looks like an economic recovery.

"The Recovery Act has played a significant role in changing the trajectory of our economy and changing the conversation about the economy in this country," Biden said in a speech at the Brookings Institution in the District. "Instead of talking about the beginning of a depression, we are talking about the end of a recession."


U.S. Payroll Losses Slow

Unemployment Rises to 9.7% 

 The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in August as signs emerged that the recession is ending, while the unemployment rate reached a 26-year high, underscoring threats to consumer spending gains in the recovery.

Employers cut 216,000 from payrolls, fewer than forecast, after a 276,000 drop in July that was larger than previously reported, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent.

Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation >>>...employment fell by 216,000 in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent. Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has dropped by 6.9 million, and the unemployment rate has increased by 4.8 percentage points. Job losses have moderated in many industry sectors in recent months...the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent in August. It had been little changed in June and July, after increasing by 0.4 or 0.5 percentage point in each of the prior 6 months. When the recession began in December 2007, the jobless rate was 4.9 percent. A total of 14.9 million persons were unemployed in August, about twice the number at the start of the recession. The number of long-term unemployed remained high. In August, 5.0 million people had been jobless for more than 6 months, nearly quadruple the number at the start of the recession.

Click here for Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary

Foreign Financing of US Government Debt >>> Click here for full list of foreign creditors

As the world's top finance officials gathered Friday in London, an assembly of top business leaders and economists echoed the cautious but spreading optimism of politicians - while warning against prematurely celebrating the end of the world's economic woes.

Among the concerns aired at the Ambrosetti Forum on the rainy shores of Italy's Lake Como:

_A winding down of government stimulus plans might not meet rebounding consumer demand, sparking a double-dip recession;

_Lasting consumer weakness in the West might not be made up by new demand from emerging markets;

_Political and corporate pressures to expand the money supply might fuel growth-squelching inflation;

_Complacency and relief might kill momentum for tougher financial regulation to prevent another collapse.

OECD upgrades global
economic outlook

A recovery in the world’s economy now looks likely to come earlier than had been expected just a few months ago, although the return to normal conditions is likely to be slow and protracted, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

In its interim assessment of the economic outlook for this year, the OECD warned that there are considerable headwinds that will weigh on recovery. “It is important not to get carried away,” said Jorgen Elsmskov, acting head of the OECD’s economics department...

For most G7 nation economies, the OECD is now forecasting a smaller contraction than it had made in June, with aggregate gross domestic product expected to decline by 3.7 per cent this year against a forecast of 4.1 per cent made just three months ago.

DIRECTOR DEL OMC DEFIENDE EL LIBRE COMERCIO PESE A LA CRISIS FINANCIERA MUNDIAL >>> El director de la Organización Mundial de Comercio (OMC), Pascal Lamy, refrendó hoy en Nueva Delhi su apuesta por el libre comercio y criticó las medidas proteccionistas adoptadas por algunos países en el marco de la crisis financiera internacional. Lamy participó en una conferencia organizada por la Federación de las Cámaras Indias de Comercio e Industria (FICCI), poco antes de asistir a la inauguración de un foro de ministros de 40 países miembros de la OMC en Nueva Delhi. "Hemos visto un aumento de las medidas comerciales restrictivas desde el inicio de la crisis financiera", denunció Lamy ante los empresarios indios, según un comunicado divulgado por la FICCI. "Aunque la situación no es para alarmarse -agregó-, necesitamos estar vigilantes y asegurarnos de que los miembros de la OMC siguen abiertos los unos a los otros".

How Did Economists Get it So Wrong

Paul Krugman on HOW DID ECONOMISTS GET IT SO WRONG?...here’s what I think economists have to do. First, they have to face up to the inconvenient reality that financial markets fall far short of perfection, that they are subject to extraordinary delusions and the madness of crowds. Second, they have to admit — and this will be very hard for the people who giggled and whispered over Keynes — that Keynesian economics remains the best framework we have for making sense of recessions and depressions. Third, they’ll have to do their best to incorporate the realities of finance into macroeconomics.

Many economists will find these changes deeply disturbing. It will be a long time, if ever, before the new, more realistic approaches to finance and macroeconomics offer the same kind of clarity, completeness and sheer beauty that characterizes the full neoclassical approach. To some economists that will be a reason to cling to neoclassicism, despite its utter failure to make sense of the greatest economic crisis in three generations. This seems, however, like a good time to recall the words of H. L. Mencken: “There is always an easy solution to every human problem — neat, plausible and wrong.”

When it comes to the all-too-human problem of recessions and depressions, economists need to abandon the neat but wrong solution of assuming that everyone is rational and markets work perfectly. The vision that emerges as the profession rethinks its foundations may not be all that clear; it certainly won’t be neat; but we can hope that it will have the virtue of being at least partly right


The G20 can lead the way to balanced growth >>> Confronted by a financial and economic shock unmatched in the postwar era, leaders of the Group of 20 have been united in their commitment to take all necessary action to restore global growth. To date, the fiscal, monetary and financial policy response across the G20 countries has been unprecedented amounting to the largest global stimulus the world has seen. Signs of renewed stability in global financial markets confirm that the G20 policy measures put in to place are working. China, South Korea and other Asian countries are leading the way, while in June France, Japan and Germany recorded their first quarter of growth since early 2008. While such positive news has helped restore confidence, a global recovery is not assured. This is no time to be complacent. The world faces several new challenges that will require leadership from the G20.

Watching industrial production 

               1929 v. 2008


BLOOMBERG VIDEO >>> lessons Learned from the Great Depression, click here

DR. DOOM (ROUBINI) CHINA CAN'T LEAD GLOBAL GROWTH >>> I don't believe China can be the main locomotive of global growth China GDP is only $3 trillion the US is $15 trillion. Chinese total consumption is $1 trillion the US is $10 trillion. So China is too small to be the main locomotive of engine of global growth, and there are excesses right now in China like froth in the real estate and the stock market. And there is now the beginning of a correction. And if there was a sharp slowdown in China, thats going to be again negative for the global economy.


Merkel de Alemania: emisión dinero debe disminiuir tras

 La canciller alemana Angela Merkel dijo el martes que las condiciones de crédito deberían endurecerse una vez que la crisis económica global haya terminado.

Las denominadas "estrategias de salida" de las medidas que los encargados de política han usado para mitigar el impacto de la crisis económica y financiera no deberían ser implementadas hasta que la economía haya llegado al punto en que estaba antes de que la crisis empezara, agregó.

Pero dijo que una vez que tales estrategias de salida estén implementadas, tendrían consecuencias extensivas para la política financiera global.

"El abastecimiento de dinero tendrá que ser reducido", dijo Merkel a la radio Bayerische Rundfunk. "Eso tendrá efectos en la política de tasa de interés. De manera que las políticas de tasas de interés cero o de 1 por ciento ya no serán posible".


Sí hay recursos para invertir; crisis no es financiera: Slim

- El empresario Carlos Slim aseguró que no hay crisis financiera en México, sino solamente económica, toda vez que sí hay recursos en el sector privado para invertir "en toda la infraestructura que requiere hoy todo el país".

En entrevista para Grupo Imagen, el magnate mexicano indicó que se debería aprovechar la situación para utilizar el capital privado que no ha sido afectado por la crisis, en obras de infraestructura y desarrollo, para generar empleos, amortiguar la caída económica y salir más rápido del trance económico.

Slim destacó que es realmente la iniciativa privada la que genera los empleos y "le está dando de comer a la gente" y exhortó a la inversión privada y al gobierno a enfocarse en atender "las consecuencias de la economía real, principalmente sociales, en el empleo".

Comentó que el gobierno y los inversionistas pueden hacer mucho por el empleo, ya que hay diversas áreas donde se puede trabajar, y que para ello, la administración podría recurría a la inversión pública y privada ante la caída de los ingresos fiscales.

Reiteró que la crisis es económica, y que el sector financiero, la moneda, los mercados, las reservas, "están bien". No hay crisis financiera en México, reiteró.


Resalta SELA ejemplo del ALBA ante crisis financiera

El secretario permanente del Sistema Económico Latinoamericano y del Caribe (SELA), José Rivera Banuet, destacó hoy aquí el ejemplo del ALBA como mecanismo para enfrentar la crisis financiera internacional.

  Una integración como la Alianza Bolivariana para los pueblos de Nuestra América (ALBA) es digna de subrayarse, señaló el funcionario al inaugurar en esta capital un foro de consulta para buscar respuestas ante el flagelo global.

Según Rivera Banuet, iniciativas como la moneda de compensación de pagos Sucre ilustran en el contexto actual la importancia del bloque formado por Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Honduras, Dominica, San Vicente y las Granadinas y Antigua y Barbuda.

Dicha propuesta puede tener un efecto relevante, estimó el experto, quien apostó por la integración regional para superar la crisis.


Fed Officials More Confident Recession is Ending
With the economy on the mend, Federal Reserve policymakers last month felt comfortable slowing the pace of one of its economic revival programs and not changing any others, according to documents released Wednesday.
Minutes of the central bank's closed door deliberations, held Aug. 11-12, also showed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues striking a much more hopeful note about the economy's prospects compared with an assessment made in late June. Many Fed officials saw "smaller downside risks," the documents stated.
Fed officials expected the pace of the recovery to "pick up" in 2010, but there was a range of views — and considerable uncertainty — about the likely strength of the upturn because of concerns about how consumers will behave.
After being pounded by the recession, consumer spending finally appeared to be leveling out, the housing market was firming and manufacturing was stabilizing, the Fed said. Plus, the outlook for other countries' economies improved, auguring well for the sale of U.S. exports.


Europe's jobless numbers rise to decade high

The number of unemployed in the euro zone now exceeds 15 million following a sharp decline in productivity

The jobless rate in the 16-nation eurozone rose to 9.5% last month, its highest in a decade, as experts warned many more people would lose their jobs in the months ahead.

The number of unemployed rose 167,000 in July to just over 15 million people, the European Union's statistics office said today. That rise was, however, a lot smaller than the half million a month seen around the turn of the year.

Although the jobless rate across the bloc rose only slightly, there were significant differences in individual countries. Spanish joblessness, for example, rose to 18.5% from 18.1% in June and 12.5% a year ago. Ireland, another of the zone's worst-hit economies, saw the unemployment rate rise to 12.5% from 12.2%.

INEVITABLE END TO DOLLAR'S RESERVE ROLE? >>> America lost credibility in the financial crisis. That has opened a path to questioning its primacy. There are plenty of reasons to doubt the dollar's dethronement. But one also begins to see -- far off -- the kind of change that takes a generation to build. Some first broached going off the international gold standard during the stock-market panics of the 1870s and 1880s. It didn't happen for 50 years. "What was true in 1945 can no longer be true today," Mr. Sarkozy said last week. "The dollar cannot claim to be the only currency in the world." In Malaysia, peace activist Dr. Chandra Muzaffar has talked repeatedly about phasing out the dollar as the world's sole reserve currency. "It's one of the pillars of U.S. hegemony," he said in an interview. "The signs indicate that we are on the cusp of major change."

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE "DEPRESSION" >>> why do many opinion makers insist on inaccurate and frightening analogies that overstate the severity of present conditions? I believe there are several reasons. First, there is a strong political motivation to make this recession out to be worse than it actually is. The Obama administration wanted to make it appear as though it saved us from an incipient disaster, so it overstated its achievements. The White House also wanted to foist its huge "stimulus" program on the country in order to redistribute income. That pleased many Democrats, but did very little to restore growth. Many others repeated the administration's hyperbolic claims. One reason is because there is genuine uncertainty about what has happened and what is likely to come. Short-term forecasts have major errors, and extrapolation of current data adds to misinformation. Then there are economists who would like to see government take a larger role in the economy. They've chosen to use the recession as a pretext for arguing for this change. New York Times columnist Paul Krugman and the International Monetary Fund repeatedly proclaimed that more government spending was a necessity. Most economists now believe that the recession is expected to end before much of the government spending takes hold. And while the improvement in recent GDP data reflects a big increase in government spending, consumer spending declined again in the second quarter. The $787 billion of fiscal stimulus has done little for consumers. Keynesian economists always fail to recognize the powerful regenerative forces of the market economy. The financial pressmany of whom share their same political assumptionsendlessly reproduces their beliefs. The Federal Reserve also shared this Keynesian viewpoint. It provided unprecedented monetary stimulus, increasing the monetary base by more than $1 trillion. Much of this increase corrected for its major mistake: allowing Lehman Brothers to fail. After 30 years of bailing out almost all large financial firms, the Fed made the horrendous mistake of changing its policy in the midst of a recession. That set off a scramble for liquidity and heightened the public's distrust in the market. This had world-wide repercussions. For four months, many financial markets remained frozen and real activity collapsed. Allowing Lehman to fail without warning is one of the worst blunders in Federal Reserve history. Extrapolation caused many market participants to conjecture that we were in a depression. The New York Times and others piled on, speculating foolishly about the end of capitalism.

POOF! CANADIAN RECESSION OVER >>> The recession ended in June, economists declared Monday after looking at a Statistics Canada report that the economy grew at a thin 0.1% rate during the month. July, they said, will be a lot stronger as auto production increases and other economic activity - real estate, inventory accumulation - picks up. Look for a "big bounce" in July, said CIBC World Markets. We're all in favour of big bounces, just so long as we understand where they came from and where they're going. The rapid turnaround in economic sentiment, in Canada and abroad, is taking place with amazing speed but without much in the way of explanation as to how we got from the brink of what was going to be a depressionary economic apocalypse to sitting pretty through a minor disturbance. It turns out there was nothing "great" about this recession in Canada; it's been just another downturn no worse than the 1991 slowdown.

Inflation Will Accelerate Next Decade

The Federal Reserve will be unable to prevent the trillions of dollars in government stimulus pumped into the U.S. economy from stoking inflation over the next decade, a survey of business economists showed.

The price gauge tracked by the central bank will rise 3 percent a year on average from 2014 through 2018, according to the median estimate in a poll taken by the National Association for Business Economics. The rate exceeds the 2 percent pace that the respondents said was the Fed’s unofficial target.

The report is in line with surveys of consumers and indicates the central bank may have to work harder to damp inflation expectations after pouring more than $1 trillion into credit markets in a strategy known as quantitative easing. Economists in the survey also said the Obama administration’s $787 billion stimulus program would push consumer prices higher.

“An excessively stimulative fiscal policy and a complicated exit from its quantitative easing policies over the medium term will result in the Fed tolerating a higher level of inflation than it desires,” according to a statement issued by the Washington-based group today. 


In the video below Dr. Christopher Martenson establishes inflation as a monetary phenomenon, defined as the decrease of the value of money, caused by too much money around in relation to goods and services. From 1665 to 1776, 111 years, there was absolutely no inflation. From 1665 to 1905, 240 years, the cost of living stayed roughly the same, aside from brief jumps during wars. Unfortunately for us, there was no settling in terms of inflation after World War I or World War II. The military apparatus was not dismantled, and inflation has accelerated to astonishingly high levels


22 video sessions total 5 hours
English / Español

"The next 20 years are not going to be 
anything like  the past 20 years".

"Los próximos 20 años no  van a ser  nada
 similar a  los pasados 20 años".



RECOVERY THREATENED BY FLAT INCOMES >>>Household income in the US is essentially stagnant, raising doubts about whether consumers already hurt by job losses can sustain an economic recovery. The now-ended Cash for Clunkers programme helped lift consumer spending last month and is expected to provide an even bigger boost in August. But any rebound could falter if shoppers don't boost their buying, which makes up about 70 per cent of US economic activity. "Consumers just don't have the financial firepower to go out and spend more," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Unless businesses curtail their job cuts, the recovery could very well peter out." Stronger consumer spending was the key to a sustained recovery. For spending to rise, analysts said, income growth has to resume. The Commerce Department reported on Saturday that personal incomes were flat in July, the eighth month out of 10 in which incomes have either fallen or failed to grow. Americans have been hammered by massive layoffs and efforts by some companies to restrain costs by forcing workers to take unpaid days off.

IRONIC PARADOX >>> The crisis that unfolded in 2008 was one for the record books, but it differed from that of the 1930s because Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury officials and Congress manufactured several trillion dollars of government money and pumped it directly into the deflating credit system. That action prevented the collapse of economic trust that characterized the worst years of the Great Depression. They correctly saw that it was truly a Keynesian moment, named after John Maynard Keynes, the Great Depression-era economist who explained how government spending could save an economy. The bailout hasn't been well planned, nor was the money deployed efficiently, but these are quibbles. The bailout saved the banking system from a complete collapse that would have propagated around the world, bringing down trade, commerce and the economic world as we know it. The bailout rewarded institutions that profited from excesses associated with the crisis. Bankers with seven- or eight-figure salaries being rescued with taxpayer money makes us angry, and for good reason. Rescuing folks from the consequences of their bad or foolish behavior makes them more prone to that kind of behavior in the future -- what economists call moral hazard. Moral hazard is a real issue, but focusing blame on financial institutions is a mistake. Every modern economy has three distinct sectors: a household sector, a government sector and a business sector, which includes banks. The foolish behavior here was consumption beyond the limits of prudence, and it wasn't American business that did that. The rate of business net saving in the U.S. has remained high. The culprits were the other two sectors, government and households.

KRUGMAN: DEFICITS ARE GOOD FOR US >>>Right now deficits are actually helping the economy. In fact, deficits here and in other major economies saved the world from a much deeper slump. The longer-term outlook is worrying, but its not catastrophic...right now its good to run a deficit. Consider what would have happened if the U.S. government and its counterparts around the world had tried to balance their budgets as they did in the early 1930s. Its a scary thought. If governments had raised taxes or slashed spending in the face of the slump, if they had refused to rescue distressed financial institutions, we could all too easily have seen a full replay of the Great Depression...deficits saved the world...we would be better off if governments were willing to run even larger deficits over the next year or two...But what about all that debt were incurring? Thats a bad thing, but its important to have some perspective...Were looking at a rise in the debt/G.D.P. ratio of about 40 percentage points. The real interest on that additional debt (you want to subtract off inflation) will probably be around 1 percent of G.D.P., or 5 percent of federal revenue. That doesnt sound like an overwhelming burden. Now, this assumes that the U.S. governments credit will remain good so that its able to borrow at relatively low interest rates. So far, thats still true...by 2019, net federal debt will be around 70 percent of G.D.P. Thats not good, but its within a range that has historically proved manageable for advanced countries...Over the really long term, however, the U.S. government will have big problems unless it makes some major changes. In particular, it has to rein in the growth of Medicare and Medicaid spending.

Crónicas de la Gran Recesión

En España, la tormenta alcanzó grado de huracán en el primer trimestre de este año provocando una contracción del PIB del 6% anualizada y la destrucción de 600.000 empleos a tiempo completo equivalente. En el segundo trimestre ha tomado tierra y ha perdido intensidad pasando a tormenta tropical. La contracción del PIB fue del 4% anualizada y destruyó 200.000 empleos. Las medidas para estabilizar el sistema financiero internacional, la inyección masiva de liquidez, la bajada de tipos y el aumento del gasto público comienzan a surtir efectos: han conseguido poner fin a la recesión y han evitado un nuevo episodio depresivo global como el de los años treinta.

Economía de EE.UU va bien; el dólar es el que flaquea

La economía de Estados Unidos muestra señales de recuperación de la crisis financiera, pero el futuro de su moneda está menos claro.

El miércoles, por primera vez en 16 años, el dólar se volvió oficialmente una opción más barata que el yen, una de las monedas con el rendimiento más bajo. 

La economía de Estados Unidos muestra señales de recuperación de la crisis financiera, pero el futuro de su moneda está menos claro. Aunque muchos analistas esperan que el dólar se fortalezca en los próximos meses, a medida que la crisis amaina y la economía estadounidense empieza a crecer, un coro cada vez más sonoro de inversionistas está preocupado por la perspectiva a largo plazo de la moneda. Ya han surgido signos inquietantes. El miércoles, por primera vez en 16 años, el dólar se volvió oficialmente una opción más barata que el yen, una de las monedas con el rendimiento más bajo.

 Cepal aplaca versiones triunfalistas sobre la crisis

Para todos aquellos que de forma por demás temeraria anuncian que hay datos muy alentadores en lo que a resurgimiento económico se refiere en especial en aquellos países altamente dependientes de Estados Unidos, como México comprenderá, la Cepal ayer les envío un atento saludo: la recuperación será lenta, gradual y tal vez inconstante, por la magnitud del efecto negativo y el rezago en el mercado del trabajo. Las principales causas de la lenta recuperación son: una débil demanda global, un elevado desempleo y balances financieros aún no decantados... Dado el rezago con que opera el mercado del trabajo respecto de la inversión y la producción, luego de dos semestres recesivos en las economías industrializadas, las economías de la OCDE operarán en 2009 y 2010 con tasas de desempleo cercanas o algo superiores al 10 por ciento. Esta tendencia agrava la incertidumbre respecto de la solvencia de los bancos y el rebrote de medidas proteccionistas. El organismo regional divulgó su Panorama de la inserción internacional de América Latina y el Caribe, en el que subraya que detrás de la crisis financiera subyacen desequilibrios estructurales que será necesario resolver, por mucho que algunos gobiernos intenten disfrazarlos de coyunturales. De nada sirve fingir que todo se resuelve con una serie de parches para que todo siga igual porque más temprano que tarde la economía y las finanzas reventarán de nueva cuenta, con consecuencias cada vez más profundas. Así, la perspectiva de una lenta recuperación sigue sujeta a numerosos riesgos y depende, en gran medida, del tiempo que requerirá el saneamiento de los balances de los bancos en los distintos países. El saneamiento no se trata solamente de desclasificar las hipotecas de alto riesgo en Estados Unidos, sino también aquellas derivadas de la recesión y la desaceleración económica que afecta a las tarjetas de crédito y a los créditos bancarios tradicionales. Además, se requiere una mayor capitalización de los bancos, particularmente en Europa, y cerrar las brechas de financiamiento en Europa oriental y central

In past global slowdowns, the United States invariably led the way out, followed by Europe and the rest of the world. But for the first time, the catalyst is coming from China and the rest of Asia, where resurgent economies are helping the still-shaky West recover from the deepest recession since World War II Economists have long predicted that an increasingly powerful China would come to rival and eventually surpass the United States in economic influence. While the American economy is still more than three times the size of Chinas, the nascent global recovery suggests that this long-anticipated change could arrive sooner than had been expected. Such a shift would have significant ramifications for the United States and the rest of the West, even after the global economic recovery takes hold. The economic center of gravity has been shifting for some time, but this recession marks a turning point, said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse in New York. Its Asia thats lifting the world, rather than the U.S., and thats never happened before.

 “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.... The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”..John Maynard Keynes

LAS VEGAS...13.1%

Unemployment Rates Rose in 26 U.S. States, Dropped in 17  in July  


"No pretendamos que las cosas cambien, si siempre hacemos lo mismo. La crisis es la mejor bendición que puede sucederle a personas y países, porque la crísis trae progresos. La creatividad nace de la angustia, como el día nace de la noche oscura. Es en la crisis que nace la inventiva, los descubrimientos y las grandes estrategias. Quien supera la crisis, se supera a sí mismo sin quedar "superado". 

Quien atribuye a la crisis sus fracasos y penurias, violenta su propio talento y respeta amás a los problemas que a las soluciones. La verdadera crisis, es la crisis de la incompetencia. El inconveniente de las personas y los países la pereza para encontrar las salidas y soluciones. Sin crisis no hay desafíos, sin desafíos la vida es una rutina, una lenta agonía. Sin crisis no hay méritos. Es en la crisis donde aflora lo mejor de cada uno, porque sin crisis todo viento es caricia. Hablar de crisis es promoverla, y callar en la crisis es exaltar el conformismo. En vez de esto, trabajemos duro.
Acabemos una vez con la única crisis amenazadora, que es la tragedia de no querer luchar por superarla... 

En los momentos de crisis, sólo la imaginación es más importante que el conocimiento".
Albert Einstein


"Let's not pretend that things will change if we keep doing the same things. A crisis can be a real blessing to any person, to any nation. For all crises bring progress.

Creativity is born from anguish, just like the day is born form the dark night. It's in crisis that inventive is born, as well as discoveries, and big strategies. Who overcomes crisis, overcomes himself, without getting overcome.
Who blames his failure to a crisis neglects his own talent, and is more respectful to problems than to solutions. Incompetence is the true crisis.

The greatest inconvenience of people and nations is the laziness with which they attempt to find the solutions to their problems. There's no challenge without a crisis. Without challenges, life becomes a routine, a slow agony. There’s no merit without crisis. It's in the crisis where we can show the very best in us. Without a crisis, any wind becomes a tender touch. To speak about a crisis is to promote it. Not to speak about it is to exalt conformism. Let us work hard instead.

Let us stop, once and for all, the menacing crisis that represents the tragedy of not being willing to overcome it...

In times of crisis, only imagination is more important than knowledge."

                                                       Albert Einstein

Why the deficit will raise taxes

The nation's debt must be brought to heel, and doing so will require tough choices beyond spending cuts, experts say.

By Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer

A $9 trillion federal deficit over 10 years may be too hard to comprehend. But this part is easy: Such unwieldy amounts of debt could have an impact on Americans' bottom line one way or the other -- if not tomorrow, then the day after.

The U.S. government has been spending a great deal more than it has been taking in, and it is on track to do so well beyond the next 10 years. It has been borrowing money to make all that spending possible and it has to pay the money back with interest. How, you ask? By borrowing more.

The solution is straightforward if unpleasant: Shy of finding a fairy willing to leave trillions under Uncle Sam's pillow, lawmakers will have to raise taxes and cut spending.

The more the country lives on a credit card, the more it makes itself beholden to the demands of its creditors -- many of which are overseas. The danger is that buyers of U.S. debt could become concerned that the country is running too high a balance. If so, they will demand higher interest rates -- thereby making the country's debt problem worse -- or they'll put their money elsewhere.

At that point, things would get ugly.

"Taxes would rise to levels that would make a Scandinavian revolt. And the government would not be able to provide anything but the most basic public services. We would no longer be a great power (or even a mediocre one), and the social safety net would evaporate," tax policy expert and Syracuse University professor Len Burman wrote in a recent op-ed cheerfully titled "Catastrophic Budget Failure.

CNNMoney.com's bailout tracker

The government is engaged in a far-reaching - and expensive - effort to rescue the economy. Here's how you can keep tabs on the bailouts.

By David Goldman, CNNMoney.com staff writer

CNNMoney.com is tracking developments in the economic rescue as they happen. Click the links on right

The above is an extract of a much longer article. Click here to read the full article.

Their economic forecasts
In addition to updating their deficit estimates, the White House and CBO updated their economic forecasts.
UnemploymentReal GDP

Source:White House budget office, Congressional Budget Offic

FDIC's Fund Plunges 20%

Banking Industry Posts Loss

1,000 Banks May Fail In Next Two Years

With bank failures rising, the government's deposit insurance fund fell 20 percent to $10.4 billion in the second quarter as U.S. banks lost $3.7 billion.chart_more_banks_more_problems.03.gif

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Thursday that surging levels of soured loans at banks dragged down profits in the April-June period. The $3.7 billion loss compared with profits of $7.6 billion in the first quarter, and $4.7 billion a year ago.

The FDIC also said the number of banks deemed to be in trouble jumped to 416 from 305 at the end of the first quarter. That's the highest number since June 1994 during the savings and loan crisis.

Total assets of troubled institutions surged to $299.8 billion from $220 billion in the first quarter


The US banking system will lose some 1,000 institutions over the next two years, said John Kanas, whose private equity firm bought BankUnited of Florida in May.

“We’ve already lost 81 this year,” he told CNBC. “The numbers are climbing every day. Many of these institutions nobody’s ever heard of. They're smaller companies.”

Failed banks tend to be smaller and private, which exacerbates the problem for small business borrowers...

“Government money has propped up the very large institutions as a result of the stimulus package,” he said. “There’s really very little lifeline available for the small institutions that are suffering.”

This comes at a time when the FDIC has established new rules on bank sales. Private equity, for instance, would have to hold double the capital of their competitors in order to buy such an institution, said Kanas.

Read FDIC Article

Read Bank Failure Article

Newspaper slump deepens 

Newspapers' 2Q advertising sales plummet 29 percent, reducing revenue by $2.8B from last year

Newspapers' financial woe worsened in the second quarter as advertising sales shrank by 29 percent, leaving publishers with $2.8 billion less revenue than they had at the same time last year.

It's the deepest downturn yet during a three-year free fall in advertising revenue -- newspapers' main source of income. The magnitude of the industry's advertising losses have intensified in each of the last 12 quarters.

Read article

10 Countries in Deep Trouble

Which countries are most in danger from the global recession?

While the collapsing U.S. housing market may be at the root of the global economic recession, the downturn's effects are being felt hardest overseas. Take Iceland, for instance. Its biggest banks failed, its economy may shrink 10 percent this year, its government fell, its central banker was sacked, the country was bailed out with a $2.1 billion IMF loan, and 7,000 people (in a country of 300,000) took to the streets in protest...

 U.S.News looked at some countries that are currently facing severe economic disruption that endangers their standards of living, attractiveness to foreign investors, and political stability. 

Five Countries iDeep Trouble

Mexico ..Pakistan..Ukraine..Venezuela..Argentina

Five Countries tKeep An Eye On


Read article

What countries will come out of the global financial crisis on top?
United States
The United States had a large trade deficit during the expansionary period, allowing it to adjust relatively easily to declining global demand. However, as a result of international capital inflows, it also had significant overinvestment in financial assets and real estate. The Obama administration responded relatively aggressively to the crisis by taking action to clean up the financial sector and implementing a $787 billion fiscal stimulus plan, but spending has been slow to materialize. The US economy is forecast to contract by 2.6% in 2009 and show only minimal growth in 2010, as individuals and firms paying down their debts remain a drag on economic growth. But compared to the major trade surplus countries, the United States' relatively fluid economy will likely to adjust to the new global environment more smoothly and rapidly.

Japan's exposure to the current crisis has been exacerbated by its efforts to sustain trade surpluses, but its economy had already been adjusting before the crisis began, with production increasingly moving overseas. Moreover, when the global decline in demand hit, Japanese firms decreased production and rapidly leveled off at much lower output. In addition, the 30 August elections are expected to displace the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), bringing to power a government that is more interested in protecting the interests of consumers rather than producers. This situation is reducing Japan's dependence on exports, providing a more stable base for growth.

The global slowdown has hurt demand for Chinese goods and threatened the vitality of China's export-oriented economic growth. While exports are unlikely to return to their previous levels in the near to medium term, Beijing's massive stimulus spending, relaxed monetary policy, and export promotion will partially counter the collapse in demand. If China is to secure long-term growth, however, efforts to rebalance the economy toward greater domestic consumption -- by putting more income in workers' pockets-must be considered.

The export orientation of the German economy and tight integration with the wider European economy limits the government's ability to stimulate domestic demand. Moreover, liabilities in the banking sector are worrying. While the government has fiscal room to maneuver, focus on the upcoming election and fears about the cost of potential interventions in both the real and financial sector have constrained Berlin. Most importantly, the government is averse to policies that would lead to a structural change in the country's export orientation. While this could begin to erode after the 27 September elections, any shift in German policy will be limited by concerns about government debt levels.

Read article...



"There is something wrong with the

 entire recovery tale"

Two facts that should give pause for thought.

1) Japanese data released on Thursday showed that exports fell yet again in July. They are down 39.5pc to the US, and 26.5pc to China.

Japan is the world’s second biggest economy. It lives on exports. It is also a key part of the supply chain for the Chinese economy. How can this hard data be reconciled with the extreme V-shaped recovery already priced in by the markets?

By the way, Toyota is suspending a key production line at its Takaoka plant in central Japan. It is cutting global capacity by 1m vehicles.

2) The Baltic Dry Index measuring freight rates for bulk goods and commodities has been falling almost continuously for eleven weeks, dropping from 4,290 to 2,778 on Thursday.

Is this just a glut of ships or is this telling us what the Shanghai market is also telling us, that credit tightening by the Chinese government is pulling the rug from underneath the latest commodity bubble?...

...EXCESS PLANT is still at the highest level since the Great Depression (capacity use is 70pc in Europe, 68pc in the US, 65pc in Japan, and as low as 50pc in some countries, according to the World Bank’s Justin Lin). Companies will have to cut jobs and investment.

Soaring “confidence” indicators have decoupled from reality. The world economy is still prostrate. GDP has shrunk 4pc, 6pc, 8pc, even 12pc or more in a large group of countries...

 The level of economic activity is years away from full recovery.



REAL US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS 16% if persons who have dropped out of the labor pool and those working less than they would like are counted: Federal Reserve official

9 % - 16% - 21% ? Is Unemployment the Worst Since the Great Depression?

FDIC: Number of troubled banks rises to 416

American economy shrinks but recovery looms

No cause for celebrations across Europe just yet

Insurance fraud accelerates as hard times bite

Alfabeto de la 

recuperacion económica

Letras de la economía

Recuperación, ¿una sopa de letras?

Es un hecho de la vida económica que a toda crisis sigue tarde o temprano una recuperación.

El gran enigma hoy es cuándo y cómo.

clic¿Se recupera la economía? 

Como enseña la historia, uno de los grandes peligros es errar el diagnóstico y pensar que se está saliendo de la crisis cuando, a lo sumo, se está consiguiendo un leve respiro.

En 1936-37 la reserva federal estadounidense evaluó que la crisis había pasado, apretó las clavijas de la política monetaria para evitar "una explosión incontrolable del crédito" y provocó una abrupta contracción económica.

"El verdadero riesgo hoy se encuentra en cómo se plantea la estrategia de salida de la crisis. El peligro es que por la preocupación que hay con la deuda pública se estime que lo primordial es reducir a toda costa el gasto fiscal", indicó a BBC mundo el director del Instituto de Estudios Laborales de la Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT) Raymond Torres.

Los economistas, que no anticiparon la crisis, intentan predecir cómo será esta recuperación y para visualizar las distintas posibilidades usan letras del alfabeto: U, V, W y L son las favoritas.

Leer analisis de BBC mundo sobre estas posibilidades mas la variante china

El comercio latinoamericano se desploma

Los ingresos dejados por las exportaciones en América Latina caerán un 25% al final de 2009, advirtió este martes la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

Terreno cultivado con soya en Argentina

LA CEPAL calcula que los precios de los productos básicos que exporta América Latina bajarán en 29%.

Este será el peor resultado para los países de la región en los últimos 72 años, agregó la CEPAL, el organismo técnico dependiente de las Naciones Unidas que tiene su sede en Santiago de Chile.

Los efectos de esta crisis en el comercio exterior latinoamericano son "de proporciones superiores a los provocados por la Crisis Asiática (de 1998) y la crisis de la Deuda Externa (1982)", de acuerdo al informe.

Osvaldo Rosales, director de la división de Comercio Internacional del organismo, dijo a BBC Mundo que en el primer semestre de 2009 el valor de las exportaciones ha enfrentado una contracción inédita de 31%.


More signs of US economic growth

US car dealer advitising the 'cash for clunkers' scheme
The 'cash for clunkers' deal proved popular

US durable goods orders and new home sales both soared last month, the latest positive indications of the state of the world's largest economy.

Orders for goods expected to last more than three years increased 4.9% in July, beating analyst expectations of a 3% gain, said the Commerce Department.

Durable goods orders were lifted by the popularity of the government's "cash for clunkers" car scrappage scheme.

This helped US car orders rise 0.9%, recovering from June and May falls.

At the same time, the annual rate of sales of new US homes rose 9.6% last month, also ahead of market targets.

This was the biggest rise in sales of new houses since September last year.

The latest upbeat official figures come a day after the closely-watched Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose by more than expected this month, while a separate study said the rate of decline in US house prices slowed in July. Click to read all...

World Trade Volume Climbs 2.5%

June Data Indicate Bottoming Out, a Key Condition for Recession to End

New data suggest the decline in world trade flows could be bottoming out, a key condition for the global economy to emerge from recession.

Trade volumes in June increased by 2.5% from May, the biggest increase in a single month since July 2008, according to figures published Wednesday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, an independent research institute. The survey is based on data from governments of 23 developed economies and 60 developing economies.

Despite the surge in June, overall trends in world trade remain dismal. Exports from trade powerhouses Germany and Japan were down more than 30% Reigniting trade is essential to getting economies rolling again, because domestic demand remains relatively weak, especially in the U.S. and Europe.


UK 1 in 6 HOMES WORKLESS >>> More than one in six UK homes which house at least one person of working age does not have anyone in employment, official statistics show. This is the highest rate since 1999, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The number of workless households hit 3.3 million in April to June, a 240,000 rise compared with a year earlier.

The US federal government faces exploding deficits and mounting debt over the next decade, White House and congressional budget officials projected Tuesday in competing but similar economic forecasts.

DEFICIT Projected To Soar With New Programs >>> 10-Year Estimate of $9 Trillion Fuels Critics of President's Agenda

AS DEFICIT GROWS SO, DO DOUBTS ON DOLLAR >>> The U.S. economy may be showing signs of recovering from the financial crisis, but the jury is still out on the future of the U.S. dollar. While many analysts expect the dollar to strengthen in coming months as the crisis fades and the U.S. economy turns toward growth, a growing chorus of investors is expressing concern about the longer-term outlook for the greenback. In a new twist to an old refrain among economists, who have long worried about the effects of growing U.S. debt, they say that the huge liabilities the U.S. is taking on to dig its way out of crisis could ultimately undermine faith in the dollar.

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT & BUDGET (OMB) >>> U.S. unemployment will surge to 10 percent this year and the budget deficit will be $1.5 trillion next year, both higher than previous Obama administration forecasts because of a recession that was deeper and longer than expected, White House budget chief Peter Orszag said...the U.S. economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year, worse than the 1.2 percent contraction the OMB projected in May. For next year, the budget office said the gross domestic product will grow 2.0 percent, less than the 3.2 percent expected in May. By 2011, the economy would be well on its way to recovery, growing at a 3.8 percent annual rate, according to the administrations mid-year economic review, released this morning. While the danger of the economy immediately falling into a deep recession has receded, the American economy is still in the midst of a serious economic downturn, the budget offices report said. The long-term deficit outlook remains daunting.

Total Deficit or Surplus 
(Percentage of GDP)

CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE (CBO) >>> estimates that the federal budget deficit for 2009 will total $1.6 trillion, which, at 11.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), will be the highest since World War II. That deficit figure results from a combination of weak revenues and elevated spending associated with the economic downturn and financial turmoil. The deficit has been boosted by various federal policies implemented in response, including the stimulus legislation and aid for the financial, housing, and automotive sectors. CBO estimates that, as the economy recovers, if current laws and policies remained in place, the deficit would shrink but remain above $500 billion per year, or more than 3 percent of GDP, throughout the 20102019 period. As a result, debt held by the public would continue to grow as a percentage of GDP during that time. That debt, which was as low as 33 percent of GDP in 2001, would reach an estimated 54 percent of GDP this year and grow to 68 percent of GDP by 2019.

Obama nominates Bernanke to 2nd term

HYPERINFLATION AHEAD? >>> The economy could spiral into hyperinflation not seen since the early 1980s if the Federal Reserve does not tighten its monetary policy soon, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) warned Tuesday. Grassley, speaking about the renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to a second term as head of the Fed, asserted that Bernanke's ability to hold down inflation would be the metric by which the Fed's success would be measured. "We won't know for a year if he's done a good job so far, because he shoveled money out of an airplane to save banks and the financial system," Grassley said.

RECESSION = MORE FRAUD ... Amid a continuing economic downturn, renewed government regulatory enforcement and with trillions of dollars of government money infused into the U.S. economy, nearly one-third of corporate executives expect fraud or misconduct to rise in their organizations, according to a survey by the audit, tax and advisory firm KPMG LLP. In addition, two-thirds of the respondents said combating fraud and misconduct may require more improvements in corporate internal control environments, the survey found. As many as 32 percent of the executives surveyed said they expected fraud or misconduct to rise in their organizations in one of three categories: financial reporting, asset misappropriation, or as another illegal or unethical act. In addition, inadequate controls (66 percent) and management override of controls (47 percent) were viewed as the top enablers of fraud and misconduct, the survey found. Meanwhile, 71 percent of respondents said the potential loss of public trust was their top concern if fraud or misconduct were revealed in their organizations.

RHODE ISLAND will shut down its state government for 12 days and hopes to trim millions of dollars in funding for local governments

THE FEDERAL RESERVE must for the first time identify the companies in its emergency lending programs after losing a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit. Manhattan Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska ruled against the central bank yesterday, rejecting the argument that loan records arent covered by the law because their disclosure would harm borrowers competitive positions.

This Banking Crisis Is Bigger Than the Great Depression

Currently, bank failures handled by the FDIC are only a tiny fraction of the financial institution failures. The totals are much larger if investment banks and so-called shadow banks, including AIG(AIG Quote), Fannie Mae (FNM Quote) and Freddie Mac(FRE Quote), also are included. In addition, two FDIC-insured banks -- Wachovia and Washington Mutual -- were so large that the FDIC couldn't handle the financial and logistic details of standard receivership...Above institutions are defined as "failures" if they have survived to date with substantial or complete government ownership..A "W" recovery, dipping back into recession, even if only for a couple of quarters, would push unemployment significantly higher and increase the mortgage foreclosure rates above the gloomiest projections made today. Such a scenario could take us beyond the thousand bank failures that many think unlikely. This also could put super banks, such as Bank of America (BAC Quote), back on the list of banks at risk. How does this bank crisis compare historically? There is no comparison.

Asia’s Recovery Highlights China’s Ascendance

Habla el Doctor DOOM:

Nouriel Roubini, el profesor de Economía que predijo la crisis financiera, escribe hoy un artículo en Financial Times en el que afirma que el riesgo de una recesión en forma de W está aumentando. Roubini afirma que las medidas utilizadas para frenar la peor crisis económica desde los años 30 han permitido a la economía mundial comenzar a salir de la recesión. Pero ahora mismo, hay tres preguntas fundamentales que responder: ¿Cuándo terminará la recesión? La economía mundial tocará fondo en el segundo semestre de 2009, afirma Roubini, que no obstante hace distinciones entre dos grupos de países ¿Cómo será la recuperación económica? La recuperación será anémica y por debajo de la capacidad de las economías avanzadas y hay un riesgo grande de una recesión en forma de W ¿Hay riesgos de sufrir una recaída? Por un lado, hay riesgo de que aumentar los impuestos y recortar el gasto público limite la recuperación y el consumo y se produzca una stag-deflation (recesión y deflación). Pero si se mantienen elevados déficits, se pondrá en peligro la rentabilidad de la deuda pública y habrá presiones inflacionistas, lo que obligará a elevar los tipos de interés y producirá stagflation (inflación y crecimiento anémico).

"La región saldrá de la crisis"

El titular del Banco Central de Argentina defendió el esquema monetario y financiero de la Argentina como escudo para enfrentar la debacle económica internacional..."América del Sur y el sudeste asiático saldrán vigorosamente de la crisis a partir de las políticas de los bancos centrales basadas en priorizar la estabilidad monetaria y financiera."

150-200 more U.S. bank failures?

A prominent banking analyst said on Sunday that 150 to 200 more U.S. banks will fail in the current banking crisis, and the industry's payments to keep the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp afloat could eat up 25 percent of pretax income in 2010. Richard Bove of Rochdale Securities said this will likely force the FDIC, which insures deposits, to turn increasingly to non-U.S. banks and private equity funds to shore up the banking system. "The difficulty at the moment is finding enough healthy banks to buy the failing banks," Bove wrote.


V?, U?, W?...two reasons why there is a rising risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession. For a start, there are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing: policymakers are damned if they do and damned if they dont. If they take large fiscal deficits seriously and raise taxes, cut spending and mop up excess liquidity soon, they would undermine recovery and tip the economy back into stag-deflation (recession and deflation). But if they maintain large budget deficits, bond market vigilantes will punish policymakers. Then, inflationary expectations will increase, long-term government bond yields would rise and borrowing rates will go up sharply, leading to stagflation. Another reason to fear a double-dip recession is that oil, energy and food prices are now rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant, and could be driven higher by excessive liquidity chasing assets and by speculative demand. Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for the global economy, as it created negative terms of trade and a disposable income shock for oil importing economies. The global economy could not withstand another contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel. In summary, the recovery is likely to be anaemic and below trend in advanced economies and there is a big risk of a double-dip recession.

Policy Makers Seek to Learn From 1937's Stalled 

[history lessons]

A few months ago, Obama administration officials were sounding the alarm about another 1929. These days, it's 1937 that has them in a sweat. The Great Depression was W-shaped. The stock-market collapse led to a steep economic decline. But by 1933, the economy had rebounded. Then a series of monetary and fiscal blunders drove the country back into a deep recession at the end of 1937. That episode is at the heart of the debate over how quickly the government and the U.S. Federal Reserve should unwind the emergency measures they have taken to fend off a Depression-like contraction. For the administration, the answer is clear: Err on the side of continued expansionary policies. "What you learned from that episode in 1937 is that it's not enough to be recovering," says Christina Romer, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers and an expert on the Great Depression. "You don't want to do anything when you start recovering that nips it off too soon."

LONG ROAD TO RECOVERY >>> Economic catastrophe has been averted, but the road to recovery is likely to be long and bumpy in spite of a surprisingly brisk start in recent weeks, according to policymakers and economists at the Fed conference. Most were reluctant to declare the crisis over, even though they thought the worst was past in large part because they do not feel they have a solid grasp of what will happen in the world economy beyond the next few months...The caution among policymakers contrasts with the mood of bullishness that has settled on financial markets since July with signs that the world economy is starting to pull out of recession.

Searching for the Economic Depression and Finding It >>> A lot of the pain is hidden, I told him, hidden behind the deceptive spin in our media or buried in the denial and delusions of many people on the streets who have not taken the trouble to try to understand the nature of the calamity they are living through.

AS the United States rolls up record budget deficits, Asian countries are showing a reduced willingness to finance the debt...China reduced its holdings of Treasury securities by $25 billion in June, the most China had ever sold in a month...In recent months, some Chinese officials have indicated concern of inflation in the United States that could erode the real value of their holdings, and have talked of diversifying their investments...(Click to read more)

ENRIQUE IGLESIAS: OPPORTUNIDADES PARA AMERICA LATINA >>> "La crisis financiera y económica internacional: impactos y perspectivas futuras"...el desenganche en el mundo de hoy no existe. La economía está globalizada y todos estamos en el mismo paquete por tanto pensar que podemos desengancharnos es una ilusión y en algún momento se pensó. Se dijo esto es problema del Norte. Pero no, es problema de todos y es importante recordarlo. Estamos insertos y cada vez más en una economía global y todo lo que allí acontezca nos afecta......HAZ CLIC PARA LEER TODO EL DISCURSO

CHINA Y RUSIA EN LA CRISIS >>> ...en el caso de Rusia y de China, comparando lo que se ha visto en ambos países desde que estalló la crisis. El resultado es un panorama bien diferente y contrastado...

CRISIS HERENCIA DE MUCHOS >>> La crisis financiera generó un movimiento para cambiar las reglas que ha implicado, a partir del G-20, a EE UU, la Unión Europea y las demás grandes economías del planeta...Lo cierto es que la crisis financiera ha provocado un giro radical en el gobierno de las finanzas mundiales con la convicción creciente de que los mercados requieren normas estrictas. Para el responsable de los Asuntos Económicos y Monetarios de Bruselas está claro que "hay ausencia de regulación en algunos aspectos, mala regulación en otros y hay evidencia de que la supervisión no se ha realizado en todos los lugares con el debido rigor". "Nadie", apostilla, "puede quedarse al margen de la necesidad de aplicarse a sí mismo la lección que deriva de la experiencia de esta crisis".

LECCIONES DE LA CRISIS >>> Las facultades están añadiendo y actualizando clases sobre la recesión, sus raíces y consecuencias. Los profesores dicen que quieren que los estudiantes eviten repetir los errores a los que se atribuye el colapso...

World emerging from deep slump but can it last?

...until American consumers begin spending again, and so long as jobs are still being lost, the durability of any recovery is questionable. Major retailers reported this week that U.S. consumers are continuing to rein in spending on all but basics. Despite slight recent improvements in many U.S. economic statistics, many consumers haven't seen a change in their lives. So many jobs have been lost nearly seven million since the recession began in December 2007 that the unemployment rate will remain high long after the economy begins to rebound. Many out-of-work Americans have lost unemployment and severance benefits and are depleting their savings. Others are saving more and spending less, still shaken from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. "This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries," said Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Decision Economics, a consulting firm...


"The new forecasts are based on new data that reflect how severe the economic downturn was in the late fall of last year and the winter of this year," said the administration official...Record-breaking deficits have raised concerns about America's ability to finance its debt and whether the United States can maintain its top-tier AAA credit rating...Many economists think it is unlikely the government can curtail spending, which means taxes would have to go up to cover the rising costs of providing retirement and healthcare benefits to aging Americans. Higher taxes, which could slow economic growth, are also a major concern of voters on both sides of the political divide



74 Banks Down This Year

Regulators on Friday shut down Colonial BancGroup Inc., a big lender in real estate development that marked the biggest U.S. bank failure this year, and a small bank in Pennsylvania. The closures boosted to 74 the number of federally insured banks that have failed in 2009.

53 Millones Subnutridos

 Latinoamericanos dice FAO

La combinación de la crisis de los alimentos con la financiera mundial aumentó la vulnerabilidad alimentaria de la población de América Latina y el Caribe, donde se prevé que 53 millones de personas retornarán a los niveles de subnutrición de los noventa, dijo el viernes un informe de FAO. La Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Agricultura y la Alimentación (FAO), señaló que la reducción de los precios internacionales de las materias primas está disminuyendo lentamente la inflación en América Latina y el Caribe

European economy bounces back with unexpected strength in the second quarter

Underlying the strong reading were solid performances in France and Germany, each of whose economies grew slightly in the second quarter, according to government data released Thursday. Though very dependent on government spending, Asia has shown sharp improvement recently. Some leading forecasters expect growth of up to 9 percent in China this year and more than 10 percent next year. Meanwhile, the brutal contraction early this year in the United States has eased, with signs pointing to modest growth in the second half.

Malos tiempos para el intocable secreto bancario

La banca suiza y su emblemático secreto bancario han dejado de ser intocables. Estados Unidos y el gobierno helvético firmaron esta semana un acuerdo extrajudicial por el que el banco UBS tendrá que revelar la identidad de algunos de sus clientes, a los que la Hacienda estadounidense acusaba de evasión fiscal con la complicidad del banco suizo. UBS se salva así de sentarse en el banquillo de los acusados y evita el riesgo de tener que pagar un sanción multimillonaria, después de que en el pasado mes de febrero ya acordara pagar 780 millones de dólares en un primer acuerdo que no evitó una nueva denuncia de las autoridades estadounidenses.

More Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week

The Labor Department said 558,000 people filed first-time claims for jobless benefits last week, up from 554,000 the week before. Until we start seeing job growth, consumers are still going to be very cautious, said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. Its premature to talk about the sustainability of a recovery, he said, until theres follow-through on the demand side.

Gobierno no permitirá viejos

 hábitos de Wall Street

 Afirmó el secretario del Tesoro

Los planes para una reestructuración de las reglamentaciones para el sector financiero están bien encarrilados, dijo Geithner a The Wall Street Journal. Según el diario, el secretario del Tesoro rechazó las críticas de que, a medida que las entidades financieras vuelven a tener ganancias, Wall Street retorna a las prácticas habituales de lucro y bonificaciones. No creo que el sistema financiero esté volviendo a las prácticas del pasado, y no permitiremos que eso ocurra, afirmó.

Fidel Castro's 83rd Birthday Reflections
U.S. politicians...believe that as soon as the banks have sufficient dollars to grease the machinery of the productive apparatus, everything will march toward an idyllic and never-dreamed of world.


Reflexiones de Fidel Castro al cumplir 83 años
Políticos norteamericanos creen que tan pronto los bancos dispongan de suficientes dólares para engrasar la maquinaria del aparato productivo, todo marchará hacia un idílico y jamás soñado mundo.

...the Bretton Woods agreement emerged in 1944, giving the powerful country the privilege of printing hard currency at a time when the rest of the world was bankrupt. The United States possessed more than 80% of the world’s gold.
I do not need to recall what came afterward, from the dropping of the atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki – the 64th anniversary of that act of genocide has just passed – to the coup d’état in Honduras and the seven military bases that the government of the United States proposes to install in Colombia. The real fact is that, in 1971, under the Nixon administration, the gold standard was eliminated and the unlimited printing of dollars turned into the greatest fraud of humanity. In virtue of the Bretton Woods privilege, by unilaterally suppressing convertibility, the United States is paying with paper for the goods and services that it acquires in the world. It is true that, in exchange for dollars it also provides goods and services, but it is also a fact that, since the elimination of the gold standard, that country’s dollar bill, quoted at $35 per troy ounce, has lost almost 30 times its value and 48 times the value that it had in 1929. The rest of the countries of the world have suffered those losses, their natural resources and money have financed rearmament and, to a large extent, underwritten the empire’s wars. Suffice it to note that, according to conservative calculations, the quantity of bonds supplied to other countries are in excess of $3 trillion, and the public debt, which continues growing, is in excess of $11 trillion.
While competing amongst themselves, the empire and its capitalist allies have made people believe that the anti-crisis measures constitute formulas of redemption. But Europe, Russia, Japan, Korea, China and India are raising funds not by selling Treasury bonds or printing money, but by applying other formulas to defend their currencies and their markets, sometimes with great austerity for their populations. The overwhelming majority of the developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America are the ones who are paying for the broken dishes, by supplying non-renewable natural resources, sweat and human lives.
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is the clearest example of what can happen to a developing country in the jaws of the wolf: in the most recent summit, Mexico was unable to obtain solutions for its immigrants in the United States, nor permission to travel to Canada without a visa.
However, under the crisis, full force is being acquired by the largest FTA [Free Trade Agreement] on a world level: the World Trade Organization, which grew under the triumphant notes of neoliberalism to the lofty heights of world finances and idyllic dreams...


En virtud del privilegio de Bretton Woods, Estados Unidos, al suprimir unilateralmente la convertibilidad, paga con papeles los bienes y servicios que adquiere en el mundo. Es cierto que a cambio de dólares también ofrece bienes y servicios, pero también lo es que desde la supresión del patrón oro, el billete de ese país, que se cotizaba a 35 dólares la onza troy, ha perdido casi 30 veces su valor y 48 veces el que tenía en 1929. El resto del mundo ha sufrido las pérdidas, sus recursos naturales y su dinero han costeado el rearme y sufragado en gran parte las guerras del imperio. Baste señalar que la cantidad de bonos suministrados a otros países, según cálculos conservadores, supera la cifra de 3 millones de millones de dólares, y la deuda pública, que sigue creciendo, sobrepasa la cifra de 11 millones de millones.

El imperio y sus aliados capitalistas, a la vez que compiten entre sí, han hecho creer que las medidas anticrisis constituyen las fórmulas salvadoras. Pero Europa, Rusia, Japón, Corea, China e India no recaudan fondos vendiendo bonos de la Tesorería ni imprimiendo billetes, sino aplicando otras fórmulas para defender sus monedas y sus mercados, a veces con gran austeridad de su población. La inmensa mayoría de los países en desarrollo de Asia, África y América Latina es la que paga los platos rotos, suministrando recursos naturales no renovables, sudor y vidas.

El TLCAN es el más claro ejemplo de lo que puede ocurrir con un país en desarrollo en las fauces del lobo: ni soluciones para los inmigrantes en Estados Unidos, ni permiso para viajar sin visa a Canadá pudo obtener México en la última Cumbre.

Adquiere, sin embargo, plena vigencia bajo la crisis el más grande TLC a nivel mundial: la Organización Mundial de Comercio, que creció bajo las notas triunfantes del neoliberalismo, en pleno apogeo de las finanzas mundiales y los sueños idílicos.




US PRODUCTIVITY grows faster than expected

FEDERAL RESERVE HOPEFUL >>> delivers vote of confidence in economy, will slow pace of emergency rescue program as recession appears to be ending.


AUTHOR QUESTIONED MADOFF IN 2001 ARTICLE >>> "Many People on Wall Street Knew" Bernie Was a Crook

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ALERT >>> As housing market starts to show recovery, commercial real estate looks increasingly grim -- could spell trouble for fragile U.S. banking sector

CRISIS IMPACT >>> Middle East and North Africa

HOUSING DOWN, DOWN,DOWN >>> Distressed Homeowners Drive Down Prices 15.6%

HARRY MARKOPOLOS >>> CREDIT-DEFAULT SWAP Fraud Will Make Madoff Look "Small-Time"

Entering the Greatest Depression in History >>> More Bubbles Waiting to Burst

CPA JOURNAL SYMPOSIUM >>> Accountants share views about fallout Madoff Ponzi scheme

U.S. economy still suffering, China on solid footing

CALIFORNIA >>> Possible new wave of foreclosure sales


It appears the US economy is not shrinking any more. Pundits are predicting a 2-3% growth in the Gross Domestic Product in the third quarter of the current year. If their predictions turn out to be correct, the length of the current recession would be about 19 months the longest since the Great Depression, but just two or three months longer than the recessions of the early 1970s and early 1980s, and the sixth longest since the beginning of the 20th Century. Just the other day, remember, pundits were predicting that the current recession in America may be similar to the Japanese recession that started in the early 1990s and lasted more than a decade. There were fears that the bursting of the real estate bubble in the US that had triggered a financial meltdown across the globe would cause a global economic depression similar to the Great Depression that lasted almost four years and wiped out a quarter of the US GDP. Short, it may be, but the so-called likely end of the recession does not look sweet. The US economy remains fragile and job market conditions are terrible. The economy has lost close to seven million jobs in less than two years. The job loss continues although at a much lower pace than it did at the peak of the recession.

Heres one of the most disturbing points made in the Financial Times piece on banks being poised to earn $38.5 billion in overdraft fees this year: Poorest customers are getting hit the hardest by the charges. The FT reported over the weekend that banks are using higher fees on overdrafts and credit cards to boost their profits in the midst of the financial crisis. The overdraft fees are nearly double the charges reported in 2000. And, not surprisingly, much of the new revenue is coming from customers already hit hard by the crisis, according to the FT. The most cash-strapped customers are the hardest hit by such fees, with 90 per cent of overdraft revenues coming from 10 per cent of the 130m checking accounts in the US. Regular use of overdrafts is most common among consumers with low credit scores. And yes, those would be the same customers who bailed out the major banks now fingering them as the source of overdraft fee revenue. The finding is likely to increase public hostility towards the financial sector, which has been under political pressure to ease the burden on consumers by increasing credit availability and lending more fairly after being bailed out by taxpayers.

Russian Economy Stabilizing

The Russian economy, which declined more than any major economy during the recession, now appears to have leveled off, according to government figures released Tuesday. Enlarge This Image Alexander Zemlianichenko Jr./Bloomberg News Seversky Tube Works in Yekaterinburg, Russia. The recession has hurt manufacturing in Russia. Russias economy all but skidded to a halt last winter because of its dependence on oil and other commodity exports as global demand dried up, its huge corporate debt before the credit bubble burst and capital flight, caused in part by the war in Georgia last summer. The new figures, measuring gross domestic product, reflected the blow to the economy early this year while offering a positive outlook on recent developments. Russias state statistics agency released two figures: one showing the economy had declined 10.9 percent in the second quarter compared with the period a year ago, and another showing it had grown 7.5 percent compared with the first quarter.

British Inflation to Remain Low, but Recovery to be Slow

British inflation may well remain below the central banks 2 percent target in coming years, the Bank of England said Wednesday, forecasting that an economic recovery would take time because the recession appeared deeper than previously estimated. Inflation is more likely to be below target in the medium term than above, the bank said in its quarterly Inflation Report. Economists said the analysis suggested that official interest rates may rise more slowly than many observers had been expecting. They hint that they think the recovery will be slow and that inflation will remain benign for a prolonged period, implying little need to tighten monetary policy anytime soon, said James Knightley, an economist at ING in London. A separate report in Britain on Wednesday showed that unemployment rose to the highest level in 14 years in the three months that ended in June as companies continue to cut jobs even though some indicators suggest that the recession is easing.

A dos años de la crisis financiera
Algunos comienzan a ver su fin

La crisis mundial que aterroriza a las pequeñas y grandes economías cumple estos días dos años. En agosto de 2007 sonaba por primera vez la alarma económica, y ahora algunos comienzan a ver la luz al final del túnel...A dos años vista, los últimos datos del desempleo en EU han dado un apunte de recuperación: la tasa de paro quedó situada en el 9.4 por ciento en julio, por debajo del 9.5 por ciento de junio. Estas cifras respaldan la teoría de un número creciente de economistas que señalan que la crisis está tocando fondo y pronostican que Estados Unidos podría volver a crecer en el segundo trimestre del 2009. La Reserva Federal (Fed), a su vez, indicó recientemente que la hay señales de estabilización en distintas regiones del país. Obama dijo que su gobierno ha salvado a la economía de Estados Unidos del colapso pero que aún hay trabajo por hacer "tenemos que subir una montaña muy empinada y empezamos en un valle muy hondo". Habrá que tener fe.

War as the
Economic Depression
The Celente thesis

As the economic crisis escalates and the debt-based central banking system shows it can no longer re-inflate the bubble by creating assets out of thin air, an economic and political rationale for war is easy to come by; for if the Keynesian doctrine that government spending is the only way to lift us out of an economic depression is true, then surely military expenditures are the quickest way to inject "life" into a failing system. This doesnt work, economically, since the crisis is only masked by the wartime atmosphere of emergency and "temporary" privation. Politically, however, it is a lifesaver for our ruling elite, which is at pains to deflect blame away from itself and on to some "foreign" target.

LATIN AMERICA >>> Social Movements in Times of Economic Crises


1. The full impact of the world crisis has yet to hit the popular classes – it began late in 2008 and only began to register increased unemployment in the first quarter of 2009.
2. The current crisis, at first, did not hit the lower middle classes, public employees and skilled workers. It has been highly segmented, thus weakening cross class solidarity and alliances present in earlier crises.
3. Unlike the previous period, the crisis takes place in many countries, which are ruled by ‘center left’ regimes with an organized social base backed by the social movements. These regime-movement linkages neutralize mass protests, out of fear of a return to the hard right.
4. The mass movements on the left have responded to the crisis with relative passivity – in part because the governments have intervened with economic stimulus measures and some social ameliorative policies. The continuation and deepening of the crisis and the inadequate coverage of moderate public interventions could eventually lead to the resurgence of mass struggles.
5. The increasing economic vulnerability of the incumbent center-left regimes and the relative passivity of the progressive social movements has opened political space and opportunities for rightwing mass mobilizations, combining electoral and street politics to build a base for a return to power.
6. The crisis will likely accelerate the lumpenization process, as long-term unemployment sets in and if alternate movements fail to organize the chronically unemployed in consequential struggles. 
7. As the bourgeoisie and its political supporters find few legitimate sources for profiteering available, they will likely serve as intermediaries and ‘protectors’ of the narco-traffickers and other criminal syndicates and rely on them to eliminate left social movement leaders and activists.
8. The rise of the ‘lumpen-Right’ may lead to a virtual ‘dual power’ situation in which legitimate and illegitimate power configurations cooperate in repressing social movements and compete for influence.
9. The relative passivity of the social movements is likely a transitory phenomenon, influenced by the convergence of circumstances. If the crisis deepens and extends over time and rightist regimes return to power, recent past historical experience strongly suggests that the massive increase in poverty and unemployment, combined with repressive rightist regimes, could lead to mass rebellions on the part of the previously ‘passive’ popular classes.



China replacing U.S. as top trade partner in Latin America

Soars in Fortune company rankings

Auto sales surpass the U.S.

in first half of 2009

All but invisible in Latin America a decade ago, China now is building cars in Uruguay, donating a soccer stadium to Costa Rica and lending $10 billion to Brazil's biggest oil company. It's supplanted the United States to become the biggest trading partner with Brazil, South America's biggest economy. China has moved aggressively to fill a vacuum left by the United States in recent years, as the U.S. focused on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the global economic crisis sapped its economy. "China is rising while the U.S. is declining in Latin America," Riordan Roett, a professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins University, said by telephone while visiting Sao Paulo. "China is all over this region. They are following a state-driven policy to expand their peaceful presence."

The number of US companies featured in a emminent business magazine's annual list of the world's top 500 global companies fell to its lowest level ever, Fortune magazine has said, while more Chinese firms appeared than ever before. Signaling the effects of the devastating financial crisis on the US economy, a non-US firm topped the list for the first time in over a decade, with Anglo-Dutch energy giant Royal Dutch Shell coming in first. The firm brought in 15 billion dollars (11 billion euros) more in sales than second place oil rival Exxon Mobil of the United States. China, Asia's ever-soaring powerhouse economy, saw its fortunes rise across the board with a Chinese firm -- oil giant Sinopec -- appearing in the top 10 for the first time, the magazine reported Wednesday. Sinopec, also known as China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, supplies 80 some percent of China's fuel. Overall, China had an unprecedented total of 37 companies featured on the list, with nine new entries and the others climbing in the rankings.


According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Chinese auto sales in June, including buses and trucks, increased 36 percent from a year ago -- checking in at 1.14 million, second only to April's 1.15 million...In June, Chinese motorists purchased 872,900 cars, SUVs, and other passenger vehicles -- which was an increase of 48 percent in the light vehicle category. Total sales for the first half of the year increased 6.1 million, up 17.7 percent from a year ago. In the United States, passenger car sales during the same period dropped to 4.8 million, thanks to the economic climate.

European house price slide hits recovery hopes

European house prices fell more quickly in the first three months of this year than even in the fourth quarter of 2008 when global recession struck, a trend that looks set to dim the regions hopes for economic recovery. The FTs European House Price Index showed the rate of annual price declines in the 16-member eurozone edging towards the even sharper decreases for the wider European region, driven by substantial house-price drops in the UK.

POWER POINT PRESENTATION The Global Crisis: Is It Over Yet?

Haz clic en foto para ver esta revista...


U.S. Economy: Jobless Claims Rise in Sign Labor Market Stagnant


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Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect

                     --- Mark Twain

We have never observed a great civilization with a population as old as the United States will have in the twenty-first century; we have never observed a great civilization that is as secular as we are apparently going to become; and we have had only half a century of experience with advanced welfare states...Charles Murray

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