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At the same time, the truly spectacular inflows
of foreign dollars into US Treasury paper cannot logically continue forever, especially given the collapse in export
markets. There is even some mystery as to how they could have been as large as they've been. Taken together, it would be logical to suspect
that US Treasury paper and new debt issuances would come under some pressure, which we would detect as falling bond/note
prices and rising yields. However, that's not at all what we are currently seeing, as indicated by the 10-year note yielding a paltry 3.2% and
recent auctions have had more than three buyers biding for each bond. The question before us is, can we see anything
that might cause this to change? I would submit that the US lacks sufficient domestic savings and productive capacity to finance its fiscal deficits
internally so I propose that there are only two paths forward. Either foreigners continue to finance the US deficits,
or the Fed will resort to even more printing to cover the shortfall.cmartenson's Blog
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Large financial institutions should face a costly combination
of higher capital requirements, tougher regulation and higher insurance premiums “making it less profitable to be ‘too
big to fail’”, Ben Bernanke told Congress
"In my view, a broad-based
agenda for reform should include at least five key elements. First, legislative change is needed to ensure that systemically
important financial firms are subject to effective consolidated supervision, whether or not the firm owns a bank. Second, an oversight council made up of the agencies
involved in financial supervision and regulation should be established, with a mandate to monitor and identify emerging risks
to financial stability across the entire financial system, to identify regulatory gaps, and to coordinate the agencies’
responses to potential systemic risks. To further encourage a more comprehensive and holistic approach to financial oversight,
all federal financial supervisors and regulators--not just the Federal Reserve--should be directed and empowered to take account
of risks to the broader financial system as part of their normal oversight responsibilities. Third, a new special resolution process should be created that would allow
the government to wind down a failing systemically important financial institution whose disorderly collapse would pose substantial
risks to the financial system and the broader economy. Importantly, this regime should allow the government to impose losses
on shareholders and creditors of the firm. Fourth, all systemically important payment, clearing, and settlement arrangements should be subject to consistent
and robust oversight and prudential standards. And fifth, policymakers should ensure that consumers are protected from unfair and deceptive practices in their financial
dealings."
READ FULL TEXT OF BERNANKE TESTIMONY
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Bernanke pide un consejo de reguladores
El presidente de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, Ben Bernanke,
dijo el jueves a miembros del Congreso que deberían otorgar a todas las entidades reguladoras federales las herramientas necesarias
para vigilar las amenazas al sistema financiero. En un testimonio escrito, obtenido el miércoles en la tarde por Dow Jones, Bernanke parece buscar hacer frente
a las preocupaciones en el Capitolio sobre la concesión a la Fed de nuevos poderes extraordinarios para enfrentar cualquier
riesgo a la estabilidad financiera. Los críticos afirman que el plan del Gobierno del presidente Barack Obama para reestructurar las normas financieras
del país incluye propuestas que darían al banco central un poder excesivo. Bernanke dejó en claro en sus comentarios que cree que la vigilancia
de los riesgos en el sistema financiero debería ser un esfuerzo en grupo. "Debería establecerse un consejo de supervisión conformado por entidades
involucradas en la supervisión y regulación financiera", indicó en su testimonio escrito. "Para alentar más un enfoque más
completo e integral frente a la supervisión financiera, a todos los supervisores y reguladores federales financieros -no sólo
a la Reserva Federal- debería ordenárseles y dárseles la capacidad para tomar en cuenta los riesgos al sistema financiero
general como parte de sus responsabilidades normales de supervisión".
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Para Wal-Mart, el panorama económico es esperanzador
Cuando Mike Duke se convirtió en presidente ejecutivo de Wal-Mart Stores
Inc. el pasado febrero, Estados Unidos estaba en las profundidades de la recesión. Pero el mayor minorista del mundo se encontró
en un buena posición. En la debilitada economía, los bajos precios de su cadena de tiendas han empezado a atraer a compradores
de mayor poder adquisitivo que buscan ofertas en productos de primera necesidad. Ahora, Wal-Mart afronta el reto de retener
a esos clientes de ingresos más altos mientras la economía se recupera. Duke, ex director del negocio internacional de Wal-Mart, debe fomentar el crecimiento en medio
de un panorama minorista en Estados Unidos cada vez más saturado, al mismo tiempo que busca nuevas oportunidades en el extranjero.
Por otro lado, está incursionando en la política de Washington al intervenir en asuntos controvertidos como la reforma al
sistema de salud y la propuesta de diferir los impuestos internacionales. En su primera entrevista con un periódico desde
que asumió el cargo de presidente ejecutivo, Duke habló sobre su visión de la aún turbulenta economía a través de un lente
único: una compañía que sirve a 140 millones de estadounidenses a la semana. Lo que sigue es una trascripción editada.
LEER TODA LA ENTREVISTA
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IMF: world economy
recovering faster than expected
The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the global economy is recovering faster
than expected — but warned governments against premature withdrawal of stimulus efforts.
The positive report card was likely to feed
a cautious but widespread relief that — despite continuing unemployment woes and halting efforts to improve regulation
of financial markets — the downturn is easing and may prove less devastating than initially feared.
According to the twice-yearly World Economic
Outlook, the world is poised to grow by 3.1 percent in 2010 with much of the recovery driven by emerging economies such as
China and India. That is up from the 2.5 percent in the IMF's previous set of estimates. And for 2009, the IMF now finds a
1.1 percent decline of global GDP instead of the 1.4 percent contraction it predicted in July.
But it warned against premature withdrawal
of stimulus efforts and said uncertain growth in the developed world could soon put governments in a vise — between
keeping their stimulus spending going, or cutting it back to avoid ruining their finances with debt and deficits.
The IMF said economic growth has turned
positive — France, Germany and Japan are already officially out of recession — as concerted efforts by governments
and central banks around the world have boosted demand and helped ease fears of total collapse of the world's financial system.
Banks have been bailed out, economies stimulated with deficit spending, and interest rates sharply reduced.
"The triggers for this rebound are strong
public policies across advanced and emerging economies
that, together with measures deployed by the IMF at the international level, have allayed concerns about systemic financial
collapse, supported demand, and all but eliminated fears of a global depression," Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's economic counselor
and Jose Vinals, the fund's financial controller, said in a joint forward to the new outlook.
Despite
a more optimistic scenario, the IMF said growth next year is still way below the levels before the financial crisis exploded
around a year ago. It warned that there were still risks its forecast was too optimistic.
READ FULL ARTICLE
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US Treasury says regulation key to averting crises
The United States should focus on reforming financial regulation in order to be armed against future crises, rather
than making unrealistic promises to never bail out another financial firm, a top U.S. Treasury official said on Thursday. "Such a promise does not bind future
governments and ultimately is not credible," Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr said. Despite signs the United States has moved back from the financial brink and is headed toward
economic recovery, "we cannot ignore the urgent need for action," he told the National Economists Club. "Our regulatory system is outdated
and ineffective and the weakness that contributed to the financial crisis persist. The progress of recovery must not distract
us from the project of reform," Barr said.
READ FULL ARTICLE
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Happy
New Year!
But leave the hats and horns in the closet. There's nothing to celebrate.
Today marks the start
of the 2010 federal fiscal year. The only thing good about it is that FY'09 is finally over.
It was the fiscal
year in which the U.S. suffered the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and government numbers reflected that.
It
was as if a fiscal tsunami struck and flooded the nation with red ink.
By the time the final numbers are in for
the fiscal year just ended, the federal deficit will have hit an all-time high in the range of $1.580-trillion. That's 11.2
percent of the total economy (GDP). The previous year's deficit was – by today's standards – nearly inconsequential
at $459-billion. That was only 3.2 percent of GDP.
Over the course of FY'09, the National Debt soared as well
from $10.124-trillion on October 1, 2008 to $11,776,112,848,656.17 as of Tuesday, the latest figure from the Bureau of Public
Debt. That's an increase of $1.652-trillion – the single largest increase ever in a fiscal year.
The projections
for the new fiscal year offer only slight hope of improvements. The mid-session review released by the Office of Management
and Budget at the end of August forecasts a deficit for FY'10 just over $1.5-tillion, amounting to 10.4 percent of the total
economy. And the aptly-named Gross National Debt is projected to skyrocket in excess of $14-trillion.
READ FULL ARTICLE
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Crisis financiera llegó con retraso a América Latina
Los efectos de la crisis financiera mundial llegaron con retraso a
los países de América Latina y el Caribe, en donde la inversión extranjera directa (IED) alcanzó en 2008 los 144,000 millones
de dólares -un incremento interanual del 13 por ciento- en el momento en que las economías más desarrolladas comenzaban a
sentir el período de recesión, reveló un informe de la ONU.
Sin embargo, el organismo prevé que las entradas y las
salidas de inversiones en la región disminuirán en 2009, debido a que las repercusiones de la crisis financiera mundial se
generalizarán en la región.
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| La crisis financiera ha provocado
un renacimiento del FMI |  |  |  |
 Foto
de archivo: FMI, ingreso El FMI está haciendo nuevos
negocios. En el curso de la crisis han sido otorgados más de 100 mil millones de dólares en créditos a Estados con graves
dificultades en sus balanzas de pagos. El primero en recibir un crédito salvavidas fue Islandia, cuya economía amenazaba con
colapsar como resultado de la crisis financiera.
A México el FMI le prometió una ayuda de 47 mil millones de dólares,
la mayor hasta ahora. Le siguió Polonia con 20 mil millones de dólares y posteriormente Bielorusia, Letonia, Hungría, Pakistán,
Serbia y Ucrania. También se han visto beneficiados Turquía, Rumania, Mongolia y Bulgaria. Otros Estados seguirán después,
según el director del FMI, Dominique Strauss-Kahn.
Atrás han quedado los tiempos cuando era sumamente difícil que el
FMI otorgara un crédito. En general se ha propagado ampliamente la convicción de que es útil la cooperación entre la institución
y los países miembros.
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Crisis de valoresEl 'crash'financiero
ha hecho saltar por los aires siete principios capitales del sistema: libre mercado, propiedad privada, buen gobierno, confianza,
globalización, supervisión y regulación LEER TODO EL ARTICULO
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World Bank Head
Sees Dollar's
Role DiminishingThe
president of the World Bank said America’s days as an unchallenged economic superpower might be numbered and that the dollar was likely to lose its favored position as the euro and the Chinese renminbi assume bigger roles. “The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the
dollar’s place as the world’s predominant reserve currency,” the World Bank president, Robert B. Zoellick, said in a speech at the School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins. “Looking forward, there will increasingly be
other options to the dollar.” Mr. Zoellick, who previously served as the United States trade representative and
as deputy secretary of state under President George W. Bush, said that the euro provided a “respectable alternative” for financing international transactions and that there
was “every reason to believe that the euro’s acceptability could grow.” In the next 10 to 20 years,
he said, the dollar will face growing competition from China’s currency, the renminbi. Though Chinese leaders have minimized
their currency’s use in international transactions, largely so they could keep greater control over exchange rates,
Mr. Zoellick said the renminbi would “evolve into a force in financial markets.” The World Bank, which is
financed by governments around the globe and lends money primarily to poor countries, has no say over the economic policies
of large nations or over currency matters. But Mr. Zoellick’s comments were unusual, in part because he seemed
intent on being provocative. He argued that the United States and a handful of other rich nations could no longer dominate
the world economy and suggested that America was losing its clout. He also took issue with a central piece of the Obama administration’s
proposal regarding the country’s financial regulatory system. “The greenback’s fortunes will depend heavily on U.S. choices,” Mr. Zoellick said. “Will the
United States resolve its debt problems without a resort to inflation? Can America establish long-term discipline over spending
and its budget deficit?”
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Kella