DJIA nearly hit 9,800 on September 16 and closed the day at just above 9,791 (down to 9781 on the 17th). Three more days
of the index rising more than 1 percent and the Dow will be back at 10,000. It has not been above that level since last October.
The Dow's shot at passing 10,000 appears to be relatively good. Most of the economic data coming out of Washington and
private research firms that cover major sectors has been good and often better than expected. GDP in the U.S. is recovering
as well as many economists expected and, in some parts of the E.U. and China, GDP improvement has exceeded forecasts. These
are all U.S. trading partners so there should be some expectation that American export figures will improve.
There are early indications that the government's $787 billion stimulus package is kicking in. The rate at which unemployment
is rising has slowed and there is even some expectation that the jobless rate will level out by early 2010. Factory production
has started to tick up. Home sales are recovering, very modestly, in some regions.
European and Asian stock markets hit new highs for the year
on Thursday as
investors became increasingly confident that the U.S. economy — the world's
largest — is growing again
Obama to reassure G20 on Wall Street
Barack Obama will pledge
U.S. action on financial regulatory reform at the Group of 20 summit in Pittsburgh and underscore the need for global coordination
on the issue, a senior aide said on Wednesday.
"It is urgent," Michael Froman, Obama's
top negotiator for next week's G20 gathering, told reporters.
He added that there must be "a consistent
approach to regulation across jurisdictions" to avoid a "race to the bottom" in which financial players flock toward countries
with more lenient oversight.
Obama used a high-profile speech on Wall Street on Monday to try to breathe
new life into his proposals to fix regulatory gaps blamed for the 2008-2009 market panic that brought the financial system
to the brink of collapse.
The speech coincided with the anniversary of the failure of Lehman Brothers,
which triggered the worldwide crisis.
Some of Obama's counterparts in the G20 blame the United
States for the global recession that followed and worry that the effort to strengthen the U.S. regulatory system has moved
América Latina es la única región del mundo en la que aumentó la riqueza durante 2008, según una investigación de la
consultora Boston Consulting Group (BCG), con sede en Estados Unidos.
La organización midió la riqueza mundial a partir de la suma de todos los activos que fueron gestionados en ese
año, o lo que es lo mismo: todo el dinero que fue administrado por los grupos de inversión.
Según BCG, la riqueza mundial disminuyó un 11,7%, de US$104,7 trillones en 2007 a US$92,4 trillones
en 2008. Esta fue la mayor contracción desde 2001, tras los atentados del 11 de septiembre.
Este estudio también afirma que Europa superó a Norteamérica en la lista de las regiones más
ricas del mundo. Mientras la primera perdió un 5,8% de su riqueza, la última se quedó sin el 21,8%. Por el contrario, la riqueza
de América Latina creció un 3%.
Depende del país
América Latina atravesó la crisis global de una manera bastante buena, debido a las políticas
implementadas en años previos que le permitieron reducir la vulnerabilidad a los shocks externos
Peter West, analista
atravesó la crisis global de una manera bastante buena, debido a las políticas implementadas en años previos que le permitieron
reducir la vulnerabilidad a los shocks externos", le explicó a BBC Mundo Peter West, analista para América Latina de Poalim
"En general hay recuperación, pero
hay que distinguir entre los países", explicó el experto.
Por un lado ubicó a países como Brasil, Perú, Panamá, Chile y Uruguay, que no han sufrido de lleno la recesión. Por otro
lado, mencionó los casos de Venezuela y Argentina, que demorarán un poco más en ver signos de mejoría.
decisively on jobs, says
16/09/2009 - Governments must act fast and decisively to prevent the recession
turning into a long-term unemployment crisis, according to OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “Employment is the bottom
line of the current crisis. It is essential that governments focus on helping jobseekers in the months to come,” he
said at the launch of the OECD’s Employment Outlook 2009. He also argued for a co-ordinated policy response to the crisis and urged policy makers not to
forget the plight of those in the developing world that often can not benefit from well-designed social protection systems.
Despite early signs of economic recovery, in most countries unemployment will rise further next
year and remain high for the immediate future. The unemployment rate has already reached a post-war record high at 8.5% in
the OECD area, corresponding to an increase in more than 15 million in the ranks of the unemployed since the end of 2007.
If the recovery fails to gain momentum, the OECD unemployment rate could even approach a new post-war high of 10%,with 57
million people out of work.
In light of this, the report argues,
governments must urgently reassess and adapt their labour market and social policies in order to prevent people from falling
into the trap of long-term unemployment.
OECD countries have introduced measures to support labour demand. These include temporary cuts in employers’social security
contributions and short-time working subsidies to compensate workers for working fewer hours or to encourage firms to hire.
In the short-term, the OECD acknowledges that these measures are playing a positive role.
But, the report warns, they must be temporary and well-targeted,
otherwise they could become an obstacle to recovery by propping up declining firms and making it harder for expanding ones
to hire new workers. As part of an overall strategy to tackle the jobs crisis, the OECD also recommends governments to:
young people who have been hardest hit by the crisis, especially those with few or no qualifications. Targeting this group
will reduce the risk of a “lost generation” of young people falling into long-term unemployment and losing touch
with the job market.
Reinforce social safety nets to avoid jobless people falling into poverty: on average in the OECD
area, 37% of individuals living in jobless households are poor - five times higher than for individuals living in a household
where at least one person has a job.
Increase spending on active labour market policies, such as job search
assistance, and training, to help the unemployed back to work. Spending on these policies has risen in many countries over
the past year, but only modestly compared with the magnitude and pace of job losses. In Ireland, Spain and the United States,
which have seen the fastest rise in unemployment in OECD countries, spending per unemployed person on active labour market
policies has fallen by 40% or more over the past year.
Foster skill formation to ensure that workers are well-equipped
with the appropriate skills for emerging jobs, including green jobs.
The current unemployment hike is the worst in recent decades
rate in the OECD area reached 8.5% in July 2009 and it could
approach 10% by 2010. This is the steepest increase in the post-war period.
Most countries have scaled up resources for labour market
and social policies to support the rapidly growing number of unemployed, but additional funds are often rather limited and
governments are facing difficult choices on how best to respond to the different demands.
are significant cross-country differences in worker reallocation rates across all industries
Each year, more than 20% of jobs, on average, are created and/or destroyed, and around one third of all workers are hired and/or separated from their employers.
There are significant differences across
countries in job and worker flows, but in all cases they contribute to productivity growth.
considerably reduces the poverty risk
to the crisis, 1 individual in 10 was poor on average
in OECD countries and more than 1 in 3 among those living in jobless households.
Anti-poverty policies need to be strengthened in a number
of countries, notably for families with children who are the most vulnerable.
US credit shrinks at
rate prompting fears of
Both bank credit and the M3 money
supply in the United States have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression since early summer,
raising fears of a double-dip recession in 2010 and a slide into debt-deflation.
Professor Tim Congdon
from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14pc in the three months to
August (from $7,147bn to $6,886bn).
"There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s," he said. "The rapid destruction of money balances
The M3 "broad" money
supply, watched as an early warning signal for the economy a year or so later, has been falling at a 5pc annual rate.
have been raised by David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff, who said that over the four weeks up to August 24,
bank credit shrank at an "epic" 9pc annual pace, the M2 money supply shrank at 12.2pc and M1 shrank at 6.5pc.
"For the first time in the post-WW2 [Second
World War] era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents and, from our lens, this is a toxic brew," he said.
It is unclear why the US Federal Reserve
has allowed this to occur.
Europe is emerging from recession, the European
Commission said on Monday, as it predicted growth in Britain throughout the second half of 200
Publishing interim forecasts, the Commission said the European Union's economy "appears to be at a turning point",
and predicted the UK would grow by 0.2pc in the third quarter and 0.5pc in the fourth.
It was one year ago today that predictions of a possible depression began to be taken seriously. Lehman
Brothers, one of the world's oldest financial institutions, one which most would have assumed would be around virtually forever,
had fallen. In the time since then, a great deal has happened – a new President was elected and sworn in; the Recovery
Act was passed to spur job creation in sectors that would rebuild our nation for a new century; and the Treasury Secretary
took aggressive action to stabilize the financial markets that were dragging down everything from 401(k)'s to spots on the
factory floor. And of course there have been endless news cycles and political scuffles along the way.
But as economic indicators continue to trickle out showing that we are returning from the brink,
and that the tragic impact on jobs that this downturn has had will not last forever, the President spoke at Federal Hall in New York City to both look back and look
While full recovery of the financial system
will take a great deal more time and work, the growing stability resulting from these interventions means we're beginning
to return to normalcy. But here's what I want to emphasize today: Normalcy cannot lead to complacency.
Unfortunately, there are some in the financial industry who are misreading this moment. Instead
of learning the lessons of Lehman and the crisis from which we're still recovering, they're choosing to ignore those lessons.
I'm convinced they do so not just at their own peril, but at our nation's. So I want everybody here to hear my words:
We will not go back to the days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess that was at the heart of this crisis, where too
many were motivated only by the appetite for quick kills and bloated bonuses. Those on Wall Street cannot resume taking
risks without regard for consequences, and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break their fall.
And that's why we need strong rules of the road to guard against the kind of systemic risks that
we've seen. And we have a responsibility to write and enforce these rules to protect consumers of financial products,
to protect taxpayers, and to protect our economy as a whole. Yes, there must -- these rules must be developed in a way
that doesn't stifle innovation and enterprise. And I want to say very clearly here today, we want to work with the financial
industry to achieve that end. But the old ways that led to this crisis cannot stand. And to the extent that some
have so readily returned to them underscores the need for change and change now. History cannot be allowed to repeat
So what we're calling for is for the financial
industry to join us in a constructive effort to update the rules and regulatory structure to meet the challenges of this new
century. That is what my administration seeks to do. We've sought ideas and input from industry leaders and policy
experts, academics, consumer advocates, and the broader public. And we've worked closely with leaders in the Senate
and the House, including not only Barney, but also Senators Chris Dodd and Richard Shelby, and Barney is already working with
his counterpart, Sheldon [sic] Bachus. And we intend to pass regulatory reform through Congress.
And taken together, we're proposing the most ambitious overhaul of the financial regulatory system
since the Great Depression. But I want to emphasize that these reforms are rooted in a simple principle: We ought
to set clear rules of the road that promote transparency and accountability. That's how we'll make certain that markets
foster responsibility, not recklessness. That's how we'll make certain that markets reward those who compete honestly
and vigorously within the system, instead of those who are trying to game the system.
THE WHITE HOUSE
Office of the Press Secretary __________________________________________________________________________ For
September 14, 2009
REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT ON
FINANCIAL RESCUE AND REFORM
Federal Hall New York, New York
...The fact is, many of the firms that are now returning
to prosperity owe a debt to the American people. They were not the cause of this crisis, and yet American taxpayers,
through their government, had to take extraordinary action to stabilize the financial industry. They shouldered the
burden of the bailout and they are still bearing the burden of the fallout -- in lost jobs and lost homes and lost opportunities.
It is neither right nor responsible after you've recovered with the help of your government to shirk your obligation to the
goal of wider recovery, a more stable system, and a more broadly shared prosperity.
So I want to urge you to demonstrate that you take
this obligation to heart. To put greater effort into helping families who need their mortgages modified under my administration's
homeownership plan. To help small business owners who desperately need loans and who are bearing the brunt of the decline
in available credit. To help communities that would benefit from the financing you could provide, or the community development
institutions you could support. To come up with creative approaches to improve financial education and to bring banking
to those who live and work entirely outside of the banking system. And, of course, to embrace serious financial reform,
not resist it.
Just as we are asking the private sector to think about the long term, I recognize that Washington has to do so as
well. When my administration came through the door, we not only faced a financial crisis and costly recession, we also
found waiting a trillion dollar deficit. So yes, we have to take extraordinary action in the wake of an extraordinary
economic crisis. But I am absolutely committed to putting this nation on a sound and secure fiscal footing. That's
why we're pushing to restore pay-as-you-go rules in Congress, because I will not go along with the old Washington ways which
said it was okay to pass spending bills and tax cuts without a plan to pay for it. That's why we're cutting programs
that don't work or are out of date. That's why I've insisted that health insurance reform -- as important as it is --
not add a dime to the deficit, now or in the future.
There are those who would suggest that we must choose between markets unfettered by even the most
modest of regulations, and markets weighed down by onerous regulations that suppress the spirit of enterprise and innovation.
If there is one lesson we can learn from last year, it is that this is a false choice. Common-sense rules of the road
don't hinder the market, they make the market stronger. Indeed, they are essential to ensuring that our markets function
fairly and freely.
One year ago, we saw in stark relief how markets can spin out of control; how a lack of common-sense rules can lead
to excess and abuse; how close we can come to the brink. One year later, it is incumbent upon us to put in place those
reforms that will prevent this kind of crisis from ever happening again, reflecting painful but important lessons that we've
learned, and that will help us move from a period of reckless irresponsibility, a period of crisis, to one of responsibility
and prosperity. That's what we must do. And I'm confident that's what we will do.
“The only thing that would really surprise me is a rapid and sustainable
recovery from the position we’re in.”
The world has not tackled the problems at the heart of the
economic downturn and is likely to slip back into recession, according to one of the few mainstream economists who predicted
the financial crisis.
Speaking at the Sibos
conference in Hong Kong on Monday, William White, the highly-respected former chief economist at the Bank for International
Settlements, also warned that government actions to help the economy in the short run may be sowing the seeds for future crises.
“Are we going into a W[-shaped recession]? Almost certainly. Are we going into an L? I would
not be in the slightest bit surprised,” he said, referring to the risks of a so-called double-dip recession or a protracted
stagnation like Japan suffered in the 1990s.
The comments from Mr White, who ran the economic department at the central
banks’ bank from 1995 to 2008, carry weight because he was one of the few senior figures to predict the financial crisis
in the years before it struck.
Mr White repeatedly warned of dangerous imbalances in the global financial system as far back as
2003 and – breaking a great taboo in central banking circles at the time – he dared to challenge Alan Greenspan,
then chairman of the Federal Reserve, over his policy of persistent cheap money.
On Monday Mr White questioned how sustainable
the signs of life in the global economy would prove to be once governments and central banks started to withdraw their unprecedented
U.S. Economy May See Its Slowest Recovery Since 1945
- The U.S. recovery may be the slowest
since World War II to regain all the ground lost during the recession, even if economists’ more optimistic forecasts
for expansion turn out to be right.
The slump this time was so deep, saidJPMorgan Chase & Co. chief economistBruce Kasman, that the 3.5 percent average quarterly
growth rate he sees in the next year won’t be enough to bring gross domestic product back to its $13.42 trillion pre-
crisis peak. That’s in contrast with the last 10 recoveries, when GDP returned to its previous levels
within 12 months.
The result: A year after the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy helped drive GDP down to an
annualized $12.89 trillion in the second quarter, there’s still “plenty of malaise,” Kasman said. Unemployment may remain close to the current 26-year
high of 9.7 percent through 2010, upsetting voters ahead of mid-term Congressional elections and forcing officials to keep
interest rates near zero and the budget deficit around this year’s record $1.6 trillion.
will be the most disappointing recovery,” said Kasman, whose forecast compares with the median estimate of 2.5 percent
growth in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
The U.S. might not recover the 6.9 million jobs and the
$13.9 trillion in wealth lost during the recession until about the middle of the decade, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com
in West Chester, Pennsylvania. The unemployment rate may never get back down to the 4.4 percent
low of 2007, he said.
Stiglitz Says Banking Problems Are Now Bigger Than Pre-Lehman
Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize- winning
economist, said the U.S. has failed to fix the underlying problems of its
banking system after the credit crunch and the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings
the U.S. and many other
countries, the too-big-to-fail banks have become even bigger,” Stiglitz said in
an interview today in Paris. “The problems are worse than they were in 2007
before the crisis.”
views echo those of
former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul
Volcker, who has advised
Obama’s administration to curtail the
size of banks, and Bank of Israel Governor Stanley
Fischer, who suggested last month
that governments may want to discourage financial institutions from growing
Whenever you find you
are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect
--- Mark Twain
We have never observed
a great civilization with a population as old as the United States will have in the twenty-first century; we have never observed
a great civilization that is as secular as we are apparently going to become; and we have had only half a century of experience
with advanced welfare states...Charles Murray
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